Fun With Murder Statistics

After the events of the past few days, you have to think of Donald Trump as Elvis. Not because he’s an entertainer, or because he’s got the outrageous hair, but because he’s a cultural appropriator. I’ll explain. Elvis became popular because he was a white guy singing black music to white people. Donald Trump is kicking ass because he’s a Republican using Democrat tactics. More specifically, he’s using the tactics developed by the Clinton/Soros machine two decades ago.

As most of you know, the Clintons made an art out of refusing to be sorry for anything they had ever done. So much so that two of their best non-apologies — “Mistakes were made” and “What difference does it make?” — have entered the public lexicon. And it works. Look at this business with Hillary and her private email server. This woman knowingly circumvented national security policy by sending, receiving, and storing classified information on a computer in a bathroom closet… and because she won’t apologize for it, she’s untouchable on the subject.

Trump has been called a “racist” by the corpo-Democratic media since Day One. The label has been applied so often and so vigorously that it’s losing its effect. More importantly, Trump refuses to apologize for his “racism”. Instead, he’s doubling down on his “problematic” behavior. I don’t think that’s by accident. He is depending on the media going absolutely insane on the topic and simply wearing out the patience of the American voter. By the time the general election rolls around, allegations that Trump is a racist will seem as old and meaningless as Hillary’s decision to do State Department business on her own computer.

It’s a brilliant strategy. Chuck Todd called Trump “the post-truth candidate”. The fact of the matter, however, is that the Clintons perfected being post-truth a long time ago. Trump is simply reading from their playbook. To a national media that is used to watching Republicans bow and scrape in front of them, it’s an act of unprecedented cheek.

The latest Trump-ism is his re-Tweeted graphic claiming that Black murder victims are killed by Black offenders 97% of the time. That’s not true, but in their efforts to refute it, the media is being forced to discuss the actual numbers. As we’ll see in a moment, some of those actual numbers are nothing short of terrifying.

We’ll be working with the 2014 FBI data today. Let’s start by showing you how the media will spin it:

  • 82% of white people are killed by other white people, which is totally fine because you’re most likely to be killed by someone in your own ethnic group.

That’s been the single talking point that the media is working. When you actually look at the FBI statistics, however, you will see that they do two separate separations: one by race and one by ethnicity. While I am certain that there are some Black people out there who are also identified by the FBI as Hispanic — Giancarlo Esposito, anybody? — for the purpose of statistical reporting it looks like Hispanics are counted as “white” the vast majority of the time. So let’s boil some additional numbers here. I want you to read all these numbers as “AT LEAST” numbers. What I mean by that is that I will ALWAYS consider the “unknown” or “unreported” figures in the FBI report to weigh AGAINST a given number. Example:

  • 89% of Black victims are killed by other Blacks.

That’s an AT LEAST number because there are a significant number of “unknown” race entries in the table. But I don’t count any of those. Alright. Let’s continue.

  • 14% of white murders are committed by Black offenders.
  • 7.6% of Black murders are committed by white offenders.
  • 4.3% of Black murders are committed by non-Hispanic white offenders.

Now, let’s do some figuring by percentage of race in America. Right now, this country is 62.2% non-Hispanic white, and 12.4% Black. Whites outnumber Blacks in this country five to one. This is where it becomes at least vaguely interesting. Say you are a Black man walking down the street and you see two people walking towards you. One is a non-Hispanic white and the other is Black. If you know nothing else about these people but their race, what is the likelihood that you will be murdered by one or the other of them?

Boil the numbers for a minute and here’s the answer: You, the African-American in the street, are approximately ninety-four times as likely to be murdered by the Black man. Makes Jesse Jackson’s famous statement a lot clearer, doesn’t it?

Alright. Now let’s flip the script (I learned that phrase by listening to rap, of course) and imagine a non-Hispanic white person walking down the street. He sees the same two people walking towards him. Who’s a bigger threat? When you subtract Hispanic murderers from the mix, it looks like the numbers are almost a dead heat. The ratio of non-Hispanic white killers of white people to Black killers of white people — 60%/14% — is very close to that 62.2%/12.2% population ratio. So our prospective White murder-ee would do well to treat both people with about equal suspicion.

The takeaway from this? By the numbers, when it comes to murder, white people shouldn’t treat Black people with any more fear or concern than they treat white people. Black people, on the other hand, should be absolutely flat terrified of other Black people and should hang out with whites every chance they get, to increase their safety.

Keep in mind we aren’t talking about rape, robbery or assault here; those are all crimes where the black-offender-to-white-victim ratio is way out of whack. We’re strictly discussing murder. And when it comes to murder, the statistics show that white people shouldn’t judge by race, but Black people probably should. Whites are pretty harmless to Blacks. When you adjust by population, the non-Hispanic-white-on-Black murder rate is virtually nonexistent.

Which is why the media goes so freaking crazy when it happens. It’s a man-bites-dog story. But if you allow yourself to be educated and informed by the media, without any filter or skepticism, then it’s easy to believe there is a “war on Black people” out there. So don’t let that happen, no matter what color you are. Learn the actual facts, apply your own thinking, decide for yourself.

But before I go, here are a few more factoids:

  • Women kill men more often than they kill other women, by about 30%.
  • Whites (including Hispanic) kill men and women at a 1.7 to 1 ratio. Blacks kill men and women at a 3.3/1 ratio. Maybe this intersectionality thing really exists.
  • Of the 720 Hispanic murders reported, 519 were linked to Hispanic offenders. Non-Hispanic whites were responsible for 59 deaths, with Blacks responsible for 119. So if you identify as Hispanic, again, you might want to consider hanging out with white people. Or even Black people, who are less threat when adjusted by population.
  • Men are 2.5 times are likely to be murdered as women. Where’s the sexist uproar? On the other hand, they are about eight times are likely to be murderers.
  • The “unknown race” number in the report — 63 — ties into the “unknown sex” number — also 63. The grisly reasons for that are left up to the reader to speculate.

25 Replies to “Fun With Murder Statistics”

  1. kvndoom

    When I was a clueless child of 18 I would deal with insomnia by walking the streets of DC at night. Sometimes as late as 2 or 3 in the morning, sometimes out walking for hours at a time. Coming from BFE Virginia, I had no fear of nor respect for the city. I look back now and I can’t believe I made it out of there alive.

    People in general scare me. My email signature at work reads: “The combined number of people killed by spiders, snakes, and sharks per year is lower than the number of people killed by humans PER DAY. Remind m again what we are supposed to be afraid of?”

      • Kvndoom

        I lived at Thomas Circle, on Vermont Avenue. Definitely not the worst DC had to offer, but when i went out, I just used the numbers and letters like bread crumbs so i could find my way home. Where I went on those nights is anyone’s guess.

    • Will

      I wonder if Abortion and “murder of child” is in those statistics you present.

      Though my favorite trope when hanging out with people of gun violence is when they say, “I have a right to life!” or “What about this kids?” and my response is always, “Well, by your logic abortion should be illegal.” Usually silence or incoherent muttering. Cognitive dissonance at its finest!

  2. VicMik

    I saw a black guy at my gas station in Alexandria, VA a few months back – mid 40s, tank top, fueling his pickup next to me. I complimented him on his revolver that he was open carrying – great to see decent people using their right to bear arms, I said. We made fun of DC and Maryland for being backward. Cant have a gun in DC and no open or concealed carry in MD (unless you get a hard to get exception). Cross the Potomac from Virginia and the murder statistics are very much not in your favor.

    • Jack BaruthJack Baruth Post author

      Props to him for carrying a wheelgun, too. Shows style, maybe at the expense of some functionality, but I like it.

  3. DeadWeight

    I truly believe that the GOP Establishment is in genuine panic mode given how high Trump’s polling numbers have been, and for how long they’ve remained there.

    Jeb or Rubio were the annointed, yet even with the full weight & support of the Faux News Machine behind it, the GOP Inner Circle can’t knock Trump down to a manageable level, nor elevate Jeb nor Rubio to anywhere near the primary numbers they really need to be at in order to not begin spoiling as viable candidates & ultimate Republican nominees.

    It’s fascinating to watch, and to be perfectly honest, I believe that it’s a Rorschach Test reflecting the incredible levels of economic, societal and general fear & anxiety of a huge % of the working-class segment of the GOP’s base (including Reagan Democrats).

  4. Dirty Dingus McGee

    I think the stats should be taken with a grain of salt, insofar as geography should also be taken into consideration. For an example, using Columbus OH, as a white male I would be more likely to meet my maker in East Linden than I would in German Village. In the closest major city to me, Atlanta Ga, I would be more likely to be killed in West End than in Woodland Hills.There are certain areas in Atlanta that as a white person you flat out don’t go to. Out here in the boondocks where I live it would likely be a white meth head, or some white kid that has embraced the “thug culture” as popularized in rap music that would do me harm. It always pays to be aware of your surroundings and also to not project a “potential victim” aura. If the potential victim looks like he would kill you as soon as look at you, most criminal types will wait for the next choice.Over the years I have had 2 occasions to draw, but not fire, a weapon. Once during the Rodney King cops trial as I had the bad luck to be in downtown when the verdict was announced, and once at 1am leaving a get together at the apartment of a friend of my then girlfriend, also in the city.

  5. davefla

    I was born and raised in Flint, Michigan. My septuagenarian white parents still live in the area. Fortunately for my levels of worry, the elderly like to be home before dark. Point being: how many murders committed between persons previously unknown to one another occur after, say, eleven P.M.?

  6. Pch101

    Yep, you definitely had fun with statistics, that’s for sure. It’s a straw man festival in here.

    The thing that has caught the attention of the media is Trump’s bogus claim that 81% of white homicide victims are killed by blacks. That’s just completely false, but there are plenty of idiots who want to believe it, so they will.

    Most whites are killed by other whites, and most blacks are killed by other blacks. This news is about as surprising as the fact that most people who are murdered in the United States are killed by residents of the United States.

    Criminal acts tend to be committed locally, so the criminals’ victims are in their communities. If you prepared a study that calculated the percentage of murders committed within a 20-mile radius of the perpetrators’ residence or workplace that the percentage would be extremely high. Nobody should be shocked by this.

    Nobody is denying that there are high crime rates in the black community. The question is whether you want to actually fix it, or if you’d prefer to score cheap white-holier-than-thou political points from it.

    • Jack BaruthJack Baruth Post author

      Riddle me this, Pch: Why don’t the rape statistics mirror the murder statistics when it comes to racial distribution? If your theory always holds water — you’re most likely to be victimized by your neighbors — then why is the rape distribution such a statistical unicorn? Is rape different?

      • Pch101

        I don’t know whether your statement is accurate, but statistics for crimes such as sexual assault are greatly impacted by whether the data gets collected in the first place.

        Many rapes go unreported, and some groups and communities are less or more likely to report them than others.

        For the most part, we do a good job of locating the bodies of homicide victims, even if the crimes go unsolved. It’s akin to traffic data — the numbers for fatalities are pretty solid because we can identify most of the incidents, while the numbers for fender benders are less accurate because many go unreported and are never documented.

        • Pch101

          The majority of sexual violence against females involved someone the victim knew. In 2005-10, 78 percent of sexual violence involved an offender who was a family member, intimate partner, friend or acquaintance.

          About 38 percent of sexual violence was committed by a friend or acquaintance, 34 percent by an intimate partner (former or current spouse, girlfriend, boyfriend) and 6 percent by a relative or family member. Strangers committed about 22 percent of all sexual violence, a percentage that remained unchanged from 1994 to 2010.

          Among college students and nonstudents, the offender was known to the victim in about 80 percent of rape and sexual assault victimizations.

          Nonstudents (34 percent) were more likely than students (24 percent) to experience rape or sexual assault committed by an intimate partner. Among female student victims, half of victimizations were committed by friends or acquaintances.

          For both students and nonstudents, about 70 percent of rape and sexual assault victimizations occurred either at the victim’s home or the home of another known person.

          Given those factoids, I have my doubts that a considerable number of rapists travel considerable distances to commit their crimes.

      • DeadWeight

        Rape & sexual assault statistics are heavily skewed by a thing called college, which frequently involves moving out of and away from one’s childhood/adolescent home for an extended period of time (still today, with the advent of commuter & online universities), and thereby taking the local out of the violent crime statistics and also fundamentally altering the racial/ethnic co-population in situ.

      • Baconator

        Jack, I would think you would be cynical enough about cops in America to know the answer to this question cold: Girls who have just been raped are *all* barely able to function and turn out to be insufficiently composed to give clear guidance to cops. So If a white college kid rapes a white girl, the cops assume there was just a fine young man who had a little understandable confusion about consent in a drunken moment. They sweep it under the rug. But if a black kid rapes a white girl, there’s a dad or a brother or a group of white-wine-guzzling gal pals who are *certain* that she didn’t meant to sleep with a black guy. And that tips the balance, and the cops write up the paperwork.

        FWIW, all the women I know who were sexually assaulted as young women – and statistically it’s about 1/3 of all women by the time we get to be in our 30s – were assaulted by white boys. Even the black girls. Number of prosecutions out of about maybe a dozen memorable stories I’ve heard? One.

        No fair being cynical about some things but not others. Shit’s ugly out there, which is why the moral clarity and limited goal set we experience when racing cars is so damn comforting. The world always makes a lot more sense when you’re only looking for the latest braking point and the best turn-in.


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