So, I’ve been on a bit of a watch-buying spree lately. Four in two weeks. A brown-dial Seiko 5 automatic, just to see what all the fuss is about among the cheap-time crowd. Today’s my first day wearing it, and so far it seems nice, easily worth the $56.50 that I have in it. I also got a pair of Swatches: one from the shop in Vegas, at which point my brother told me about his Swatch that was much cooler than mine, so I got one of those too.
The fourth watch was a bit more of a “major” purchase, at least for a cash-poor prole-a-saurus like me, and put off the discussion about that until I can find a way to tell the story of how and why I bought it without sounding like a complete and utter tool. What’s relevant here is that although I tried the watch on in the manufacturer’s Vegas boutique, I ended up buying it from another source at about a 30% discount. I can’t help it, I’m a natural-born bargain shopper, always have been, hate to pay retail, never buy in a mall, and so on.
A friend of mine who knows that I like nice watches and bargains pointed me towards the WOOT Rolex sale. Naturally, the minute I saw that “refurbished” “vintage” (oh, how I wish there was something stronger than a double quote to put around the use of the word “vintage” to describe a 1993 Rolex) Datejusts could be had for $3,200, I was off to eBay to see what they were really worth. And that’s where I got a bit of a surprise, one that isn’t just applicable to watches.
Rolex, the company, is on a tear lately. Although they are hugely secretive about their production numbers, it’s well-known, at or at least well-assumed, that they are producing slightly over one million watches a year. One million Rolexes a year. You might think that Justin Timberlake is popular, but he’s got nothing on Rolex. There are 7.2 billion humans on Earth right now, so if you subscribe to the theory of the “1 percent”, that’s 72 million people, so one in 72 of those one-percenters gets a new Rolex every year. And they all want a Milgauss or a Submariner LV or a stainless Daytona. As a result, the prices for those particular pieces are starting to approach whatever comes after “unreasonable”. The green-bezel Submariner LV was a $5,000 watch a few years ago; it’s now $8,995 from an unauthorized dealer. The stainless Daytona is $12,995 without a warranty. We are this close to the day when you’ll need a shopping basket full of devalued $100 bills to buy a watch, the way you had to buy bread during the final days of the Weimar Republic.
It would be easy to see this unprecedented production volume and real-world pricing as a complete validation of the Rolex brand and the company’s current philosophy. Which it is; it just isn’t a validation of anything real. Consider, if you will, the technical reasons why Rolex is superior to many other Swiss watches. They make their own mainsprings, which is rare. The mechanical excellence of their in-house movements is beyond question, as is the package of upgrades they apply to externally sourced movements. (The Daytona, as an example, only became a “100% Rolex” a few years ago. Prior to that, it was a Zenith El Primero in a really nice case. More information here.) The cases are made to standards of extreme precision. The hands of most Rolex watches are made from solid gold. There’s real excellence there.
Yet all of those same complimentary things can be said about the Rolex that was responsible for the brand’s initial worldwide success, the Oyster Perpetual Datejust. Oyster, because it has the famous watertight case. Perpetual, because it’s self-winding. Datejust, because it shows the date. Unless you work in an area with extremely strong magnetic fields, or you spend a lot of time fifty fathoms deep, the Datejust is basically the same watch as a Milgauss or a Submariner. (The Daytona is a chronograph, but nobody actually uses the chronograph function to time anything, not in the era of light-beam timing systems.) So if a used Submariner LV or Milgauss fetches six grand easy, how much is a “vintage” Datejust worth?
The answer is: not much. eBay currently has about 240 stainless Daytonas listed, none for under nine thousand bucks. The Datejust, on the other hand, can be found in much greater numbers: well over 8,300 as of a few minutes ago, including the bargain that heads up this article. Most of them have “Buy It Now” prices that aren’t met. A search of actual completed auctions returns relatively few results. Over eight thousand Rolexes that nobody really wants, even at a thousand dollars or so.
Mechanically, these watches are just as good as the popular ones. They are just “old-fashioned”. So nobody wants them, particularly in an era where “dress watches” like the Datejust have been replaced by “sport watches”. You know, because it’s critical for you to have 100m diving capability or magnetic resistance while you’re sitting in a New York office building. It’s easy to be a Rolex owner. You need two thousand dollars, or less. But don’t expect anybody to have any genuine interest in, or respect for, what you’re wearing. Unless that person is an actual watch geek who understands just how good an old Datejust is.
The final indignity is this: the two-tone gold-and-stainless versions are worth less than the all-steel ones. This, in an era where Obamadollars need to be stacked a foot high to buy an ounce of gold. How long until you can buy half-gold Rolexes for melt value? Not long, methinks. Might be a smart buy.
So, watches aside, what does this mean in the greater context? One, that it would be unwise to bet than any manufactured item, even a Rolex, will appreciate in value or even match inflation. Don’t be fooled by Daytona mania. Today’s Daytona is the Datejust of 2025.
Two, that Swiss watch fans don’t really care about mechanical excellence or anything like that. The vast majority of them are fashion followers. It gives the lie to many of the hobby’s underlying principles and suggests that Rolexes are actually no more intrinsically valuable than Pokemon cards.
Three, that if you really want a decent, long-lasting, reliable watch at a reasonable price, you could go buy a Datejust and have my complete respect, at least.
Four, that the supply of “luxury goods” is outpacing demand and will likely continue to do so as economies tumble and globalization turns us all into the Pakistani bricklayers of Neal Stephenson’s brilliant phrase. The day will come when there aren’t enough rich people to buy the rich people stuff. Which means that it will be sold to poor people, or not sold at all. So hold on: the day’s coming when you’ll be able to dig in the dirt for worms to eat, wearing a Rolex Datejust. Or — let’s face it — a Submariner LV. What time is it? Worm-digging time!
So would you go for a used Datejust over an Omega Speedmaster?
I already have a Broad Arrow, which I adore. Against the manual-wind Speedy? I’d say the Omega is cooler, particularly for someone who fancies himself a race driver. But a Datejust on a leather strap has credibility everywhere.
Amazing .
I stopped buying Timex’s when they stopped making them in America , now I just buy $9 Chinese crappo at the drug store and they last 4 or 5years , toss them out when they die and repeat .
Obviously Jack is very wealthy else he’d never consider paying over $50 for a dang _wristwatch_ ! .
Food and gasoline are FAR more important ! .
-Nate
A million Rolexes a year? Can that really be ?
Would you really buy a Rolex on eBay? Suppose I want a Datejust. Where are some reputable places to get a “vintage” one?
I think you could safely buy from any reputable pawnshop — they typically don’t take fakes in. Then have it verified by another jeweler.
Bo Diddley: Burnt my fingers, man.
Louis Winthorpe III: I beg your pardon?
Bo Diddley: Man, that watch is so hot, it’s smokin’.
Louis Winthorpe III: Hot? Do you mean to imply stolen?
Bo Diddley: I’ll give you 50 bucks for it.
Louis Winthorpe III: Fifty bucks? No, no, no. This is a Rouchefoucauld. The thinnest water-resistant watch in the world. Singularly unique, sculptured in design, hand-crafted in Switzerland, and water resistant to three atmospheres. This is *the* sports watch of the ’80s. Six thousand, nine hundred and fifty five dollars retail!
Bo Diddley: You got a receipt?
Louis Winthorpe III: Look, it tells time simultaneously in Monte Carlo, Beverly Hills, London, Paris, Rome, and Gstaad.
Bo Diddley: In Philadelphia, it’s worth 50 bucks.
Louis Winthorpe III: Just give me the money.
[looking in display case]
Louis Winthorpe III: How much for the gun?
Back in the day guys in special forces used gen-yoo-ine Roledexes because they were the only watches that were actually waterproof.
you may already know about it; this is an interesting site for used watches:
http://www.bobswatches.com
i have no affiliation with it.
I have my grandfather’s Rolex Air King. Manual wind, all stainless steel. It’s a beautiful, precision piece that I look forward to passing to one of my sons one day. It’s also all the watch I’ll ever need, elegant and timeless.
Let’s see. As you were passing between the Venetian and Palazzo visions of a Portuguese Perpetual caught your eye. You thought to yourself, that’s slumming and you found a Port Grande Complication elsewhere.
Probably not the case but I’m curious.
When I graduated college, my parents got me a Rolex. We went to the jewelry store, I looked at all the options, and I ordered an Oyster Perpetual Datejust in stainless steel and gold with the beveled bezel and navy blue face. As it was my graduation gift, I will never sell it. I don’t wear it all the time-I usually wear a stainless and chrome Pulsar my dad got me in about ’99, but I really like the Rolex. So, it’s not a huge concern what it is worth.
Oh, also, a family friend used to take trips to China for business, and one year he gave my brother a fake Rolex as a gag gift. It was actually fairly convincing. I don’t think my brother wore it much so no idea if it still works-it’s probably sitting in a drawer somewhere.
Carla Bruni insisted Sarkozy ditch his Rolex as she believed it was too tacky for a head of state. Maybe she was on to something.
My after-school job in HS was that of an engraver at a very upscale jewelry store. I’d get in about 3:30, and I’d be at my machine between the watchmaker’s bench and the jeweler’s table.
Plaques, serving trays, and other silver, brass and bronze keepsakes were commemorated upon my machine. One must be exceedingly careful that A) you don’t set any misspellings, B) you don’t slip with your diamond tipped stylus as you hand trace each letter in the client’s selected font.
While I never got nervous much putting permanent etchings onto the above items, I’d get a dry mouth and break into a cold sweat when I’d see a Rolex in my job tray. Gulp. The case backs leave precious little room for dating or personalization, and often times, the client would request the characters be set on a radius (following the curvature of the watch’s outer edge), which means moving the watch, sans bracelet, for every single character. The steel backs were/are also incredibly hard, which meant great pressure needed to be applied to the stylus, increasing the chance of a slip and permanently scarring the watch.
The scariest was a Day-Date President in 18k. An anniversary gift, if I remember correctly. The watch was worth more than all my possessions, and every dollar I’d ever earned to that point in my life (by multiple factors).
At closing time, after we’d locked the doors, I’d help the sales staff and owner load the diamonds and watches onto trays and carry them to the vault. I got a good look at every Rolex in just about every variation available (at the time, very early 80s). The gold President was and is still my favorite. Yes, I know its cachet has been largely diminished by drug lords, mafia dons, rappers, athletes, and other members of the nouveau riche that flock to own it — but damn, that watch has heft, presence.
At the time of my employment, I dreamed of someday being able to come back in the future to buy a Rolex at that jewelry store. Never did. Priorities and dreams changed, of course. Not that I wouldn’t mind a Rolex (yes, a Sub in steel). Maybe someday. As my Rolex collecting friend points out, buying a popular Rolex is actually buying a “free” watch. As Jack points out, you can buy a Milgauss today and sell it for a profit in a year; try that with your Seiko diver (which I admit, I wear often, mostly because I was, in fact, big into scuba).
This is a great story. I’m lucky to have you as a reader. Thank you.
I think your omega is more accurate. I do love my rolex but they arent as super accurate as you might hope. Play a round of golf and check the time, they tend to overwind and get fouled.
Interesting article Jack… In 2012 Rolex got 798k chronometer certifications, so if you conclude they grew in 2013, and throw in Cellini production etc, yes they are cranking out around a 1 million pieces a year.
It has been a long time since I worked in the industry ( mid-eighties until mid-nineties in Australia), and whilst the non exotic Rolex Oysters like Datejusts were considered quality watches, they were universally derided and unloved in the trade, being referred to in the most un-pc term, as a “Chinaman’s watch”. So I’m not surprised that they linger around unwanted in the secondhand market.
I disagree about the Daytona being the Datejust of 2025. The Daytona has always been a highly desirable variant, and whilst it may not necessarily be money in the bank like it has been previously, the supply and demand equation combined with the fact that it has never gone out of fashion since its introduction will mean there won’t be 8000 listings on ebay at say $5k each.
Fifty Fathoms? I see you couldn’t resist a big bang of a joke…